Iraq vs Norway: Who Wins? AI Says Iraq at 42% Data-driven preview with win probabilities, expected goals, and where the bookmakers are wrong. The World Cup 2026 is heating up, and one of the most intriguing matches is between Iraq and Norway. Our AI football predictions indicate that Iraq has a 42% chance of winning, while Norway has a 27% chance. The remaining 31% is allocated to a draw.

The bookmakers, however, have Norway as the clear favorite, with odds of 1.19 for a Norwegian win. However, our analysis suggests that the bookmakers may be underestimating Iraq's chances. Iraq has shown a good form recently, with a win and 2 goals scored, while Norway has obtained a draw and a loss with an average of 0.5 goals scored.

Our expected goals (xG) metric suggests that Iraq has a slight advantage, with an xG of 1.2 compared to Norway's 0.9. The over 2.5 goals market has a probability of 35%, while both teams to score (BTTS) has a 41% chance. The corner market is expected to be relatively high, with 9.4 corners predicted, and the cartellini (yellow cards) market is expected to be moderate, with 4.6 cartellini predicted.

Statistics and Trends Iraq has averaged 1.00 goal per game, while Norway has averaged 2.47 goals per game. Iraq has also averaged 0.98 goals conceded per game, while Norway has averaged 0.99 goals conceded per game. The head-to-head record between the two teams is limited, but Iraq has a slightly better record in their last 25 games, with 12 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, compared to Norway's 15 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses.

AI Analysis Our AI analysis takes into account various factors, including team performance, head-to-head records, and market trends. The AI model is trained on a large dataset of football matches and uses machine learning algorithms to make predictions. The model is constantly updated with new data and adapts to changing trends and patterns in the football world.

Conclusion and Recommended Bet In conclusion, while the bookmakers have Norway as the clear favorite, our AI football predictions suggest that Iraq has a good chance of winning. The expected goals metric and the head-to-head record suggest that Iraq may be underrated by the bookmakers. Therefore, our recommended bet is Iraq to win or draw, which has a probability of 73% according to our AI model. This bet offers good value, considering the bookmakers' odds, and is a good option for those looking for a value bet in the World Cup 2026.