Match Overview

Getafe host Deportivo La Coruna at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez on 13 September 2026. Both sides sit mid‑table in La Liga, with Getafe in 7th (51 points) and Deportivo in 13th after 25 matches. The fixture carries importance for European ambitions for Getafe and a chance for Deportivo to climb out of the lower half.

Form & Key Stats

Getafe have a mixed recent run: WLWDL, scoring 0.92 goals per game while conceding exactly 1.00. Their attack has struggled, reflected by an average of 9.1 shots per match. Deportivo, by contrast, enjoy a more potent offense (1.52 goals per game) and a tighter defence (0.87 goals conceded). They average 11.9 shots and 5.1 corners, indicating a higher chance of creating scoring opportunities.

Injury Impact

Getafe are missing several key players: Abdelkabir Abqar (defence), Francho Serrano (midfield), Juanmi (forward), Christantus Uche (defence) and Kiko Femenía (defence). The loss of Juanmi especially weakens their firepower, while the defensive absences could expose the back line. Deportivo only list Jonathan Asp Jensen (midfield) as unavailable, leaving their core XI largely intact.

xG & Expected Goals Analysis

The AI model projects an xG of 1.10 for Getafe and 1.60 for Deportivo. This gap reflects Deportivo’s superior chance creation and Getafe’s limited shooting output. Over 2.5 goals has a 51% probability, while BTTS (both teams to score) sits at 55%, suggesting a reasonably open game despite Getafe’s defensive frailties.

Head‑to‑Head & Historical Trends

In the last 25 meetings, Getafe hold a slight edge (11W‑4D‑10L) but the recent trend favours Deportivo, who have won 13 of their last 25 games overall. At home, Getafe have struggled against top‑six opposition this season, winning only 4 of 12 home fixtures. Deportivo have been efficient on the road, conceding less than one goal per away match on average.

Betting Odds & Value

Current 1X2 odds from Betano, 1xBet, Dafabet and SBO list Getafe at 2.49, Draw at 2.86 and Deportivo at 3.33. The AI win probabilities are Getafe 38%, Draw 27%, Deportivo 35%. Comparing implied probabilities (1/odds) to AI forecasts reveals slight value on the Draw (implied 35%) and on Deportivo’s win (implied 30%). The Double Chance 1X at 65% and X2 at 62% also present low‑risk options.

AI Prediction Summary

Win probability: Getafe 38% | Draw 27% | Deportivo 35%
Predicted exact score: Getafe 1‑2 Deportivo La Coruna
Over 2.5 goals: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%
Expected corners: 5.6
Expected cards: 4.0

The model highlights Deportivo’s attacking edge and Getafe’s defensive vulnerability. The most likely outcome is a narrow away win for Deportivo, with at least one goal from each side.

Recommended Bet

Given the odds and AI probabilities, the best value bet is Deportivo La Coruna to win at 3.33 combined with a Both Teams to Score (BTTS) at typical market odds (≈1.70). This double offers a projected edge of roughly 8% over the bookmaker’s implied probability. For risk‑averse bettors, the Double Chance X2 (Deportivo or Draw) at 1.75 also provides solid coverage with a positive expected value.

Overall, the Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna la liga prediction points to a competitive match where Deportivo’s firepower should prove decisive, making their win and BTTS the most attractive bets for today's football predictions.