Levski Sofia host Jagiellonia in a crucial UEFA Europa League clash on 5 November 2026. Our AI football predictions put the Bulgarian side at a 48% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw and a 25% chance that the Polish visitors will take all three points. The model also predicts a 2-1 scoreline in favour of Levski Sofia, while expected‑goals (xG) suggest a tighter 1.21‑1.51 encounter. Below we break down the data, the injury list, the betting market and where the bookmakers may be undervaluing the home side.

Match Overview

Levski Sofia (home) come into the match with a solid domestic record of 16 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in 25 games. Their average of 1.68 goals per game is slightly below Jagiellonia’s 1.84, but they concede only 0.76 goals per game – the best defensive average in the dataset. Jagiellonia have been more prolific but also leak 1.20 goals per game. Both teams average around 13 shots per match, with Levski earning a few more corners (5.3 vs 3.6) and fewer cards (1.0 vs 1.4).

Injury Impact

Levski Sofia are missing five key players: Petko Hristov, Oliver Kamdem, R. Kirilov, Asen Ivanov Mitkov and Mustapha Sangaré. The loss of Hristov and Kamdem reduces attacking depth, while Kirilov’s knee injury and Mitkov’s general injury further thin the midfield. Jagiellonia also face three absences – Dawid Drachal, Cezary Polak and Norbert Wojtuszek – but their impact is less pronounced as the missing players are not regular starters. The AI model accounts for the home advantage and the depth of Levski’s squad, which helps sustain the 48% win probability despite the injuries.

Statistical Snapshot

Goals per game: Levski 1.68, Jagiellonia 1.84
Goals conceded per game: Levski 0.76, Jagiellonia 1.20
Shots per game: Levski 12.8, Jagiellonia 13.1
Corners per game: Levski 5.3, Jagiellonia 3.6
Cards per game: Levski 1.0, Jagiellonia 1.4
Clean‑sheet rate: Levski 17%, Jagiellonia 12%

These numbers underline a defensive edge for Levski, while Jagiellonia’s attacking efficiency – especially in the last five fixtures where they have averaged two goals per game – explains the higher xG.

AI Win Probabilities

Levski Sofia victory: 48%
Draw: 27%
Jagiellonia victory: 25%

The AI soccer predictions also generate a double‑chance 1X (Levski or draw) at 75% and X2 (draw or Jagiellonia) at 52%, highlighting the home side’s resilience.

Expected Goals & Score Prediction

The model’s xG values are 1.21 for Levski and 1.51 for Jagiellonia, suggesting a marginally higher quality of chance for the visitors. However, Levski’s superior conversion rate (1.2 shots on target per game) and the home crowd factor shift the most‑likely exact score to 2‑1 for the Bulgarians. Over‑2.5 goals have a 51% probability, while BTTS (both teams to score) sits at 56%.

Betting Angles & Bookmaker Gaps

Current 1X2 odds from 1xBet, BetVictor, Marathonbet and SBO list Levski Sofia at 2.00, a draw at 3.48 and Jagiellonia at 3.64. Converting these odds to implied probabilities gives Levski a 50% market expectation, slightly higher than the AI’s 48% – indicating the market may be over‑valuing the home side’s chance to win.

The bookmaker player‑prop market shows Mustapha Sangaré at 2.50 (40% implied) and Juan Perea at 2.50 (40%). Both players are unavailable, meaning the odds are artificially inflated. Smart bettors can avoid these traps and focus on the more reliable markets:

Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 (AI 51% suggests value)
Both teams to score at 1.80 (AI 56%)
Levski double‑chance 1X at 1.45 (AI 75% – a solid low‑risk option)

By contrast, the under‑2.5 odds sit around 2.10, which appears generous given the combined xG of 2.72.

Final Takeaway

The AI prediction platform gives Levski Sofia a respectable 48% chance to win despite a thin squad, while Jagiellonia’s offensive firepower keeps the match open. The most valuable bet, according to the data, is Levski’s double‑chance 1X at 1.45 – it aligns with a 75% AI probability and offers a good risk‑reward balance. If you prefer a goal‑rich game, the over‑2.5 market also holds slight edge. Expect a competitive encounter, but the home side’s defensive discipline should see them edge out a 2‑1 victory.

Overall, the AI football predictions suggest that bookmakers are slightly generous on Levski’s win odds and undervalue the over‑2.5 line. Use the AI‑driven insights to place a smart bet and enjoy the UEFA Europa League predictions for this exciting tie.