The La Liga clash on 7 November 2026 pits Osasuna against Athletic Club at 17:30, and the data tells a clear story. Our AI football predictions indicate a 46% probability that Athletic Club will win, 28% for a draw, and 26% for an Osasuna victory. The model’s most likely exact scoreline is 0-2 for Athletic Club.

Match Overview

Both teams are fighting for mid‑table stability. Athletic Club sit 12th with 45 points (13‑6‑19) while Osasuna linger in 17th with 42 points (11‑9‑18). The fixture is crucial for Osasuna’s survival hopes and Athletic’s push to climb out of the lower half.

Current Form & Standings

Athletic Club have managed a mixed run of LDLLW in their last five games, showing resilience at home but occasional lapses on the road. Osasuna, however, are in a dire slump – five straight losses (LLLLL) have eroded confidence and put pressure on the manager.

Injury Impact

Osasuna will be without Romain Del Castillo, Jorge Herrando and striker Aimar Oroz, all sidelined with muscle or hamstring issues. The loss of Del Castillo weakens midfield creativity, while Herrando’s absence dents the defensive line.

Athletic Club also face three key absences: Unai Eguíluz, Gorka Guruzeta and Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, all ruled out with knee or hamstring injuries. Despite the blow, Athletic’s depth, especially in attack, remains sufficient to threaten.

Statistical Comparison

Osasuna average 1.31 goals per game while conceding 1.64. Their shot output sits at 11.7 per match with 4.0 corners. Athletic Club boast 2.05 goals per game, concede only 1.08, and generate 15.6 shots with 6.2 corners. Expected goals (xG) are 0.97 for Osasuna versus 1.51 for Athletic, reinforcing the offensive edge.

Historically, Osasuna have recorded 8 wins, 3 draws and 14 losses in their last 25 league outings, whereas Athletic have 11 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats in the same span – a clear advantage for the Basque side.

AI Prediction & Probabilities

Victory Osasuna: 26%
Draw: 28%
Victory Athletic Club: 46%

Additional AI outputs: - Over 2.5 goals: 45% - Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 50% - Over 1.5 goals: 72% - Over 3.5 goals: 24% - Expected corners: 9.3 - Expected cards: 5.0 - Double chance 1X (Osasuna or draw): 54% - Double chance X2 (draw or Athletic): 74%

These numbers align with bookmaker odds (Athletic @2.06, Osasuna @3.67, draw @3.40) and suggest a modest upside for backing the Basque side.

Exact Score Prediction

The AI’s most likely exact scoreline is 0‑2 in favor of Athletic Club. The model bases this on Athletic’s superior shooting rate, tighter defense, and Osasuna’s recent inability to score against well‑organized backlines.

Betting Insights

For value‑bet seekers, the 2.06 odds on Athletic Club’s win represent a slight edge over the AI’s 46% implied probability (≈2.17 decimal). A double‑chance X2 bet at roughly 1.35 offers safety against a draw while still capitalising on Athletic’s advantage. The over 1.5 goals market (45% implied) also looks attractive given the 72% AI probability.

Takeaway

All signs point to Athletic Club edging a struggling Osasuna side, with a 46% win probability and a projected 0‑2 scoreline. The recommended bet is a double‑chance X2 for the safest exposure, or a straight win on Athletic Club if you seek higher returns. The AI’s data‑driven forecast makes this fixture a solid pick for anyone looking at football predictions today.